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Is It Necessary to Lie to Win a Controversial Public Debate?:An Answer from Sociophysics

机译:撒谎赢得一场有争议的公共辩论是否必要?:社会物理学的答案

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摘要

Controversial public debates driven by incomplete scientific data where nobody can claim absolute certainty, due to the current state of scientific knowledge, are studied. To adopt a cautious balanced attitude based on clear but inconclusive data appears to be a lose-out strategy. In contrast overstating arguments with incorrect claims which cannot be scientifically refuted appears to be necessary but not sufficient to eventually win a public debate. The underlying key mechanisms of these puzzling and unfortunate conclusions are identified using the Galam Unifying Frame (GUF) of opinion dynamics. It reveals that the existence of inflexible agents and their respective proportions are the instrumental parameters to determine the faith of incomplete scientific data in public debates. Acting on one’s own inflexible proportion modifies the topology of the flow diagram, which in turn can make irrelevant the value of initial support. On the contrary focusing on open-minded agents may be useless given some topologies. Accordingly, the inflexibles rather than the data are found to drive the opinion of the population. The results shed a new but disturbing light on designing adequate strategies to win a public debate. The cases of global warming is briefly discussed.
机译:研究了由不完整的科学数据引起的有争议的公开辩论,由于当前的科学知识状态,没有人可以要求绝对确定性。基于清晰但不确定的数据采取谨慎的平衡态度似乎是一种失败的策略。相比之下,夸大其词并提出不正确主张的论点是无法科学地驳斥的,这似乎是必要的,但不足以最终赢得一场公开辩论。这些令人费解和不幸的结论的潜在关键机制是通过意见动态的Galam统一框架(GUF)来确定的。它表明,僵化代理人的存在及其各自的比例是确定公开辩论中不完整科学数据的信念的工具参数。以自己不灵活的比例行事会改变流程图的拓扑结构,从而使初始支持的价值变得无关紧要。相反,考虑到某些拓扑结构,专注于思想开放的代理可能没有用。因此,发现僵化而不是数据来驱动人群的意见。结果为设计适当的策略赢得公众辩论提供了新的但令人不安的亮点。简要讨论了全球变暖的情况。

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  • 作者

    Galam, Serge;

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  • 年度 2014
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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 en
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